The word bankruptcy has been hanging over Chicago like a storm cloud about to burst. Mayor Brandon Johnson is the latest leader to attempt to close Chicago’s gaping fiscal gap: He proposed a $300 million property tax increase to partly fill Chicago’s $982 million projected budget deficitkubiwin, only to have it be unanimously rejected by the City Council. The Council narrowly passed a budget on Dec. 16, with far less in tax increases than the mayor had initially demanded.

The Windy City’s woes are the product of decades of fiscal profligacy and a cautionary tale to policymakers in every region and at every level of government: Retirement benefits are like free junk food to politicians — everyone loves them, and the bills don’t arrive until later. They can be ruinous for a city’s long-term fiscal health.

At the heart of Chicago’s deficit are decades of increasingly generous retirement benefits offered by Chicago’s leaders to more than 30,000 public employees, a politically powerful constituency. Today, a city employee retiring after 35 years with a final salary of $75,000 would receive combined pension and retiree health benefits of about $77,000.

The city government has failed to fund those pension promises fully and the bill has come due. Retirement benefits and debt service together made up 43 percent of Chicago’s budget in 2022, the highest rate of any U.S. city. Chicago spends more on debt and pensions than it does on the police and infrastructure, according to an analysis from the Illinois Policy Institute, a libertarian-leaning policy group. In other words, Chicago is paying for the past, not investing for the future.

Chicago’s pension actuary warned in a letter to the plan’s leadership last year and again this year that “the fund is still at risk of potential insolvency if an economic recession or investment market downturn were to occur in the near term.” (He wrote it in boldface to get policymakers to take notice.)

Chicago owes bondholders almost $29 billion. It also faces $35 billion in unfunded pension liabilities and almost $2 billion in unfunded retiree health benefits. And these figures do not include an additional $14 billion in unfunded benefits owed to Chicago’s teachers. The watchdog group Truth in Accounting gives Chicago a grade of F for fiscal responsibility, ranking it 74 out of 75 cities. (New York City is last.)

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The report — put out by the Republican members of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party and the House Committee on Education and the Workforce — also recommends stricter guidelines around federally funded research, including significantly curtailing the ability of researchers who receive U.S. grants to work with Chinese universities and companies that have military ties.

After all, how exactly can a pollster know who is “likely” to vote, and who therefore will be the focus of their results? There’s no one right answer, and every polling firm has its own strategy.

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